HFIP Annual Review Meeting
- About
- Agenda
- Presentations
- Lodging
- Registration
- Remote Attendance
Date
17 - 20 November 2015
Location
Embassy Suites Miami International Airport Hotel
3974 NW S. River Drive
Miami, FL 33142
+1-305-634-5000
Overall Objective
The agenda will consist of three parts:
1. Ensemble Workshop (Nov 17, 8:30 AM - 5:15 PM with an 1 hour lunch time)
2. Reports from each of the strategic and tiger teams on activities and results from 2015 and plans for 2016 and path forward (Nov 18, 8:30 AM - 5:30 PM and Nov 19, 09:00 AM - 12:00 PM with an 1 hour lunch)
3. Optional Python scripting tutorial for HWRF developers (Nov 19, 1:00 PM - 5:00 PM and Nov 20: 9:00 AM - 12:00 PM)
Ensemble Workshop: This scientific focus session on hurricane ensembles is relevant to the HFIP demo project this year with special attention given to ensembles of high-resolution regional models (Navy, NCEP, GFDL). Workshop topics include design and implementation of hurricane ensembles, ensemble post-processing techniques (weighted means, superensemble techniques), probabilistic forecasts, representation of uncertainty, use of ensembles in data assimilation, observation sensitivity experiments, single model vs. multimodel ensembles etc.
At NCEP operations, there is continued emphasis on the use of ensembles more so than we do today. Even after the HFIP workshop dedicated to the subject five or so years ago, we still don't have good, new ensemble techniques to improve deterministic forecasts. We would like to use this opportunity to review the state-of-the-art in the science and application of hurricane ensembles, and discuss on prioritized development of new applications for effective use of ensemble products for operational needs at NHC. The goal of this workshop is to encourage more community involvement and come up with a set of recommendations for consideration by HFIP.
HFIP annual meeting: The HFIP program is guided with the advice of Strategic Planning teams and Tiger teams. The purpose of the HFIP Strategic Planning teams is to develop a multi-year (1-5 years) strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance. The Tiger teams will be responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capability for the hurricane forecast guidance system. Overall, the role of the team members are to ensure the HFIP plan represents an integrated plan across NOAA and involving the community outside NOAA and that it will lead meeting the overall HFIP goals. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and also discuss on future NOAA strategy related to next generation model developments and its relevance to the hurricane problem. The HWRF tutorial will be complimentary to the annual meeting this year and will be open to all HWRF developers who are interested in learning the recent advancements made to the HWRF system using Python scripts and Rocoto workflow.
Contacts
Vijay Tallapragada (vijay.tallapragada@noaa.gov) HFIP Co-Development Manager
Gopal (sundararaman.g.gopalakrishnan@noaa.gov) HFIP Co-Development Manager
Fred Toepfer (frederick.toepher@noaa.gov) HFIP Program Manager
Frank Marks (frank.marks@noaa.gov) HFIP Science Manager
Sheema Lett (nysheema.lett@noaa.gov) HFIP Logistcs Coordinator
MaryBeth Zarlingo (zarlingo@ucar.edu) HFIP Registration Coordinator
Paul Kucera (pkucera@ucar.edu) HFIP Website Coordinator
Agenda
Workshop on Effective Use of Hurricane Ensembles
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
- HWRF Ensemble Prediction System and its Verification for 2015 Real time parallel experiment - Zhan Zhang
- Evaluation of 2015 GFDL Hurricane Ensemble - Matt Morin
- Performance of the 2015 real-time COAMPS-TC ensemble and combined COAMPS-TC/HWRF/GFDL multi-model ensemble - Jon Moskaitis
- Development and performance of a statistical-dynamical ensemble technique for tropical cyclone intensity guidance - Kate Musgrave
- A hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities - Andrea Schumacher
- Probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone intensity change using an analog ensemble - Chris Rozoff
- NHC's uses and needs for ensemble prediction systems - Eric Blake
- Using Stochastic Ensembles to Better Understand Hurricane Predictability - Falko Junt
- Impact of Model Uncertainty on Hurricane Ensembles - Carolyn Reynolds
- A Multiple-Model Ensemble Examination of the Probabilistic Prediction of Hurricanes Sandy (2012), Edouard (2014), and Joaquin (2015) - Christopher Melhauser
- The ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track in GEFS - Kate Zhou
- Storm-scale ensemble design: Model error representation with WRF-ARW for severe storm prediction - Glen Romine
- The ensemble forecast of Hurricane Isaac (2012) - Hua Chen
- Application of HWRF ensemble forecasts for prediction and observation targeting - Ryan Torn
- Panel Discussion Summary
- Altug Askoy
- Jun Du
- Jon Moskaitis
- Jiayi Peng
- Jeff Whitaker
- Zhan Zhang
Panel Discussion
HFIP Annual Meeting
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
- Welcome, State of the Program- Toepfer
- Summary of Ensemble workshop recommendations - Torn
- Preliminary FY15 verification - Franklin
- HWRF in FY15 - Zhan Zhang
- HWRF upgrades and priorities for 2016 at EMC - Trahan
- Long Range Plans - Tallapragada
- JTWC report - Strahl
- COAMPS-TC updates - Doyle
- Stream 1.0 Discussion
- Model Developments - Zhang
- Web Page - McCaslin
- Web Page - Kucera
- Physics Strategy - Bao
- Post Processing and Verific
- ATCF developments NRL - Sampson
- Ocean Model Impact - Kim
- Ocean Model Impact - Supplement - Kim
- Recon Data Impact: TDR/Dropsonde DA Impacts for HWRF - Sippel
Stream 1.0
HFIP Team Reports
Thursday, November 19, 2015
- FSU Genesis Products - Dan Halperin
- NHC Perspective - Pasch
- DTC core activities - Newman
- All sky radiance assimilation overview - Whitaker
- Gopal
- Tallapragada
Discussion on Genesis Product
HFIP Team Reports
Satellite Data Assimilation
HFIP Future Priorities
Lodging
Hotel Accommodations will be provided by: Embassy Suites Miami International Airport
A block of rooms have been reserved at the hotel for HFIP Meeting participants. A hotel reservation can be made by calling 1-800-853-0271 and using the meeting code: HFP.
Participants can also register online using the link and following instructions below:
HFIP Annual Meeting Hotel Reservation Site
1) Click on the link
2) Enter in the date of arrival
3) Enter in the Group code (HFP) when prompted
Transportation: The Embassy Suites provides a 24h complimentary shuttle service from the airport.
Registration
Email: MaryBeth Zarlingo (zarlingo@ucar.edu) to register for the meeting.
Please provide the following contact information.
Name:
Institution:
Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Phone:
Email:
Name to be used for badge:
Please indicate which meeting(s) you plan to attend:
- HFIP Annual Meeting
- HFIP Ensemble Workshop
- Python Scripting Tutorial
Remote attendance or in person?:
Remote Attendance
Please join HFIP meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone using the link:
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/229059941
You can also dial in using your phone:
United States : +1 (224) 501-3412
Access Code: 229-059-941