Date

HFIP Annual Review Meeting: 8 - 9 November 2011
HFIP Regional GSI-Hybrid Data Assimilation Workshop: 10 November 2011

Location

Homewood Suites by Hilton® Miami-Airport/Blue Lagoon
5500 Blue Lagoon Drive Waterford Of
Miami, Florida 33126

Tel: 1-305-261-3335

Purpose

HFIP Annual Review Meeting

Each year, the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program has a review meeting. The emphasis this year will include reports from each of the HFIP teams and a session to discuss the HFIP real-time system—results from this summer and plans for next. The real-time system next summer is planned as a major demonstration of what can be accomplished in hurricane forecast guidance given sufficient computer resources and so needs to be carefully planned. Computing resources next summer may be approximately twice that available this summer.

HFIP Regional GSI-Hybrid Data Assimilation Workshop

The HFIP Regional GSI-Hybrid Data Assimilation Workshop is part of the effort of the DTC to build a unified GSI-hybrid community system and helping accelerate transitions from research to operations on such a system. Specifically, the purposes of this workshop (tentatively) include:

— Collect information and assess ongoing hybrid related research

— Facilitate discussion on building a GSI-hybrid framework

— Work with HFIP management to focus HFIP research community on a single
    regional hybrid system for hurricane forecast operations.

The workshop will have invited speakers. We are open to proposals for lectures and talks. More information will be sent out later.

Contacts

Robert Gall (Robert Gall)
Frank Marks (Frank.Marks@noaa.gov)
Ed Rappaport (Edward.N.Rappaport@noaa.gov)
Fred Toepfer (Frederick.Toepfer@noaa.gov)

GSI-Hybrid Data Assimilation:
Brian Etherton (Brian.Etherton@noaa.gov)
Hans Huang (huangx@ucar.edu)
Hui Shao (huishao@ucar.edu)

Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu): registration, logistics

HFIP Annual Review Meeting - Overall Objectives

The emphasis this year will be on designing and getting ready for the real-time system next summer on t-jet. This is likely to be a major show item for NOAA so we have to do it right. Things to consider:

                   • What should be included in the system
                      o Global ensembles?
                      o Regional ensembles?
                      o Products?
                         • Emphasis on ensemble and genesis products
                      o New Statistical products—the SPC3 has been doing very well this
                         summer
                   • Testing and evaluation of the season including Stream 1.5 I’d like to
                         see more ensembles part of the stream 1.5 process
                      o Timelines
                   • I propose a goal to have the full test run of the system by mid-July

Other components of the meeting will include:
                   • Reports on activities and achievements from each HFIP team
                      o Summary of major milestones and goals set by their team for FY10
                      o Summary of milestones achieved or progress toward achieving a
                         particular goal
                      o Highlights of FY11 progress from the team perspective
                      o Team views of HFIP priorities for FY12
                   • Discussion of Stream 1.0 priorities for FY12
                   • Overview of new products being explored by HFIP and its
                      collaborators
                   • Summary of the Stream 1.5 process
                      o From TCMT perspective
                      o From NHC perspective
                      o Summary of Stream 1.5 model performance

Agenda

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

8:30 am       Welcome, State of the Program, Administrative changes—Toepfer
8:45 am       Overview of HFIP FY10 activities and results—Gall
9:00 am       Preliminary FY11 verification—Franklin

Stream 1—Gall (lead)

9:20 am       HWRF in FY11—Tallapragada
9:35 am       Prioritized Stream 1.0 needs for FY12—Tallapragada, Pasch
9:50 am       Discussion

10:30 am     Break

HFIP Development—Team Reports—Marks (lead)

11:00 am     Team Reports (20 min each)
                   • Global Model/Physics (Benjamin, Brown)
                   • Regional model/physics (Bender, Kwon)
                   • Ensemble Systems (Toth, Reynolds)

12:00 pm     Working Lunch (discussion on research priorities for HFIP)

1:00 pm       Continue Team Reports (20 min each)
                   • Data Assimilation/Vortex Initialization (Whitaker, LaPenta)
                   • Verification (Marchok, Brown)
                   • Applications/Diagnostics (DeMaria, Rappaport)
                   • Hurricane Observations (Aberson, Knaff)
                   • Coupled Ocean/wave models (Tolman, Halliwell)
                   • Socio-Economics (Sprague, Read)
                   • Summary of AO awards (Melendez)

3:15 pm       Break

3:30 pm       Discussion

Community Diagnostics Effort

4:00 pm       Discussion—DeMaria, Talapragada (lead)

5:30 pm       Adjourn

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Visitor program Reports—Gall (lead)

8:00 am       NHC visitor program—Landsea
8:15 am       HRD aircraft visitor program—Aberson

Ensemble reports—Gall (lead)

8:30 am       GFS/FIM Ensemble results—Whittaker, Benjamin
8:50 am       GFDL ensemble results—Marchok

9:10 am       Break

Stream 1.5—Rappaport (lead)

9:45 am       Reflections on FY11 from a TCMT perspective—Nance, Kucera
10:00 am     Reflections on FY11 from a NHC perspective—Rappaport, Franklin,
                   Pasch
10:15 am     Initial community expressions of interest/justification for FY12
                   Stream 1.5 candidacy (10min presentations/discussion each
                   by respondents to prior open invitation)—Pasch (lead)

                   The following list is tentative:

                   (a) PSU AHW
                   (b) HRD HWRF
                   (c) U. Wisconsin
                   (d) TC-COAMPS
                   (e) FSU multi-model ensemble
                   (f)  MMM-AHW
                   (g) GFDL ensemble
                   (h) High Resolution GFS ensemble
                   (i)  High resolution FIM Ensemble

12:30 pm     Group discussion of community presentations; resource
                   requirements for FY12; related issues—Pasch/Nance (co-lead)

1:00 pm       Working Lunch (general discussion)

HFIP 2010 Experimental Forecast system—Toepfer (lead)

2:00 pm       Proposal for FY 2012 Experimental forecast System—Gall
2:15 pm       Examples of Products from FY2011 season
2:30 pm       Group Discussion—Identify priorities for FY2012 Experimental
                   Forecast system

                   • Possible presentations for alternative proposals

3:30 pm       Break

4:00 pm       Discussion continued
4:45 pm       Day 2 Wrap-up and next steps—Gall

5:00 pm       Adjourn

HFIP Regional GSI-Hybrid Data Assimilation Workshop - Agenda

Thursday, November 10, 2011

MORNING SESSION 1 – Overarching/Introductory Comments/Operational
                                   requirement and capability (Chair: Hans Huang)

8:00 am       Welcome and background from HFIP (Fred Toepfer/Bob Gall)
8:20 am       DTC: A unified framework and/or questions to discuss (Hui Shao)
8:40 am       NHC: hurricane forecast requirement (Chris Landsea)
9:00 am       NCEP/EMC: operations requirement, ongoing efforts and plan
                                   (Vijay Tallapragada/Mingjing Tong)
9:25 am       NOAA: Global GSI-hybrid system implementation with EnKF and how
                                   it could be extended to regional (Jeff Whitaker)

9:45 am       Coffee break

MORNING SESSION 2 – Ongoing efforts, requirements and plans for transitions
                                   from current real-time ensemble/DA to a unified operational
                                   hybrid system (Chair: Jeff Whitaker)
                                   
10:00 am     NOAA/AOML (Tomi Vukicevic)
10:15 am     NOAA/ESRL/GSD (Zoltan Toth)
10:30 am     NAVY/NRL (Alex Reinecke)
10:45 am     PSU (Fuqing Zhang)
11:00 am     Suny Albany (Ryan Torn)
11:15 am     University of Oklahoma (Xuguang Wang)
11:30 am     NCAR/MMM (Arthur P. Mizzi)

11:45 am     Working Lunch (provided)

AFTERNOON SESSION 2 – Discussion (Chair: Brian Etherton, Vijay Tallapragada)

12:30 pm     Targeted discussion

                    Summary of the presentations (Brian) and requirements (Vijay)

                   • How would our collaboration be?
                      o What is the current system? How to work based on it? How many
                         contributors are we expecting? What are the EMC requirements?
                         Community requirements?
                   • How can we manage the collaboration and monitor the progress?
                   • Who will make decisions? A committee? What procedure to follow?
                   • What development work needs to be done in the short term to make
                      the GSI-hybrid system a viable alternative for those folks to run next
                      year.
                      o GSI system – EMC baseline, how to let others build on it?
                      o Ensemble system – EMC baseline, how to let others build on it?
                      o Hybrid system- What are the common parts to be generalized?
                         How to do it? By whom? How to incorporate community
                         contributions (especially those using different packages)
                      o How to test the system and incorporate contributions from
                         community
                             • Testing metrics
                             • Distributed testing or centered
                      o Milestones/deliverables – goals realistic?  Computational resources?
                         Timeline? POCs?
                   • How will the development of the GSI-hybrid system interact with
                      development of the existing system(s), e.g., GSI.

2:00 pm       Coffee break

2:15 pm       Summary and steps towards formalizing the plan

                   • A list of requirements, and a development and testing plan (timeline,
                      POCs, etc)

3:00 pm       ADJOURN TO GET TO AIRPORT ON TIME!

Venue and Lodging

The workshop will be held at:

Homewood Suites by Hilton® Miami-Airport/Blue Lagoon
5500 Blue Lagoon Drive Waterford Of
Miami, Florida 33126
Tel: 1-305-261-3335

Driving directions can be found here:

From Miami International Airport

From Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport


A block of rooms has been set up at this hotel for the government rate of $105 per night and includes breakfast and light dinner. Please use HFIP for the group name attendee code. This block is guaranteed until October 24th so please book prior to that date by calling (305) 261-3335.

A complimentary shuttle is provided. Upon arrival at Miami International Airport, call 305-261-3335.

Email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register for the workshop.

Please provide the following contact information and include:

HFIP Annual Review Meeting, the Workshop or Both Meeting & Workshop.

Name:
Institution:
Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Phone:
Email:
Name to be used for Name Badge:

Registration is free. This meeting and workshop is sponsored by the HFIP/NOAA/NWS.

The meeting will be available for remote attendance by ReadyTalk.

If you'd like to participate remotely, email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register.

Please provide the following contact information.

Specify REMOTE ATTENDANCE
Name:
Institution:
Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Phone:
Email:
Country:

ReadyTalk Information:

Audio Login: Toll-Free (US & Canada): 866.740.1260
Toll: 303.248.0285
Access Code: 4978197

Web Login: www.readytalk.com

Support: U.S. and Canada: 800.843.9166 or help@readytalk.com
Access Code: 4978197