HFIP Annual Review Meeting | January 2017

January 11-12, 2017 | National Hurricane Center (NHC), Miami, FL

Overall Objectives

The HFIP program is guided with the advice of Strategic Planning teams and Tiger teams. The purpose of the HFIP Strategic Planning teams is to develop a multi-year strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance. The Tiger teams will be responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capability for the hurricane forecast guidance system. Overall, the role of the team members is to ensure the HFIP Strategic Plan implemented represents an integrated plan across NOAA and involvement from the community outside NOAA which will lead to achieving the overall HFIP goals. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and discuss the NOAA strategy related to the Next Generation Global Prediction System developments and the strategy to address the hurricane problem.

The agenda will consist of three parts;

• Reports from each of the strategic and tiger teams on activities and results from 2016; and priorities for 2017
• FV3 hurricane prediction development strategy
• Priorities for NOAA with HFIP funding uncertainties

Agenda - Final

(updated 1/11/2017)

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

8:15 am   Registration, Name Badge Pickup, Continental Breakfast

8:40 am   Welcome remarks, Introductions, NHC facility logistics

Results from 2016 – (Chair: Rappaport)

8:55 am   FY16 NHC Verification (Franklin)

9:05 am   NHC's forecast challenges in 2016 and view on developmental priorities (Blake, Demaria)

9:25 am   2016 Year in Review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Developmental Priorities (Strahl)

Operational Modeling Center Reports – (Chair: Rappaport)

9:55 am   HWRF FY16 Performance (Zhan Zhang)

10:10 am   EMC Hurricane model upgrades and priorities for 2017 (Mehra)

10:40 am   Break

11:00 am   COAMPS-TC FY16 Performance and FY17-FY18 Plans (Doyle)

11:20 am   Performance of Ensembles and FY17-FY18 Plans (Zhang, Moskaitis)

11:40 am   Long Range Plans (Tallapragada)

12:00 pm   Working Lunch (provided)

 1: 05 pm HFIP Team Reports (20 min each) - (Chair: Mehra)

Strategic Teams

1:10 pm   Model Developments (Xuejin Zhang, Zhan Zhang)

1:30 pm   Physics Strategy (Abarca)

1:50 pm   DA/Initialization/Ensemble Development (X.Wang)

2:10 pm   Post Processing/Verification (DeMaria, Zelinsky)

2:30 pm   HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (Simon and Penny)

2:50 pm   ATCF developments (DeMaria, Sampson)

3:10 pm    Break

3:30 pm   DTC core activities (Newman)

Tiger Team Reports (20 min each) – (Chair: Gopal)

3:55 pm   Ensemble Products Tiger Team (Torn)

4:15pm    FFO Award: Evaluating Methods of Parameterizing Model Error in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System (Torn)

4:25 pm   Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (Kim, Halliwell)

4:45 pm   Hi-Res Physics Tiger Team (Gopal, Abarca)

5:05 pm Summary and Wrap up: How did we do in 2016? – Marks (Chair)

• Discuss Day 2 agenda and optional group dinner

5:30 pm   Adjourn

Thursday, January 12, 2017

8:15 am   Continental Breakfast

8:30 am   Connecting HFIP to NHC's Partner Needs (Knabb)

8:40 am    Next Generation Efforts – (Chair: Marks)

8:45 am   Replacing Operational Hurricane Wave model (Avichal)

9:00 am   DA progress and plans (Sippel)

9:20 am   Strategy for hurricane prediction in NEMS (Avichal)

9:40 am   Nesting capabilities in FV3 (Harris)

10:00 am   Basin-scale and beyond (Gopal)

10:20 am   Break

10:40 am   Open Discussion Priorities for HFIP (Chair: Tallapragada)

• Future of GFDL hurricane model
• Continuation of multi-model regional ensembles
• Generating new ensemble-based products
• Continuation of HFIP Web Page
• Computational resources – utilization stats
• Stream 1.5 Discussion

12:00pm   Working Lunch (provided)

1:00pm   2016 FFO Award - Overview of Projects (20min each) – (Chair: Hedge)

1:05pm    Intensity Error Growth and Predictability Limit in the HWRF Model (Kieu)

1:25pm    HWRF Self-consistent En-Var Hybrid Data Assimilation System to Improve High Resolution Hurricane Vortex Initialization (Wang)

1:45pm    Improvement in Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Neural Networks

2:05pm    Improving HWRF's Ability to Predict Rapid Change in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Governed by Internal Physical Processes (Ping Zhu)

2:25pm    Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Structure with an Analog Ensemble (Rozoff)

2:45 pm    Break

3:10pm   Priorities for NOAA's hurricane prediction under funding uncertainties

• NWS funding
• OAR funding

4:30 pm   Adjourn

Meeting location

National Hurricane Center (NHC)
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165

Parking at NHC is limited. NHC would like participants to park north of the building. (see map at right; click on image to enlarge)

Lodging

Comfort Suites Miami - Kendall
3901 SW 117 Avenue, Miami, FL, 33175, US
Phone: (305) 220-3901

Participates should call the hotel and make a reservation under the HFIP Meeting room block.

Remote Participation

Day 1 -
HFIP Annual Meeting (Miami) 
Wed, Jan 11, 2017 8:00 AM - 6:00 PM EST 

Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone. 
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/508506493 

Join the conference call: 
1-877-985-3644; passcode 5846644# 

First GoToMeeting? Try a test session: http://help.citrix.com/getready 


Day 2
HFIP Annual Meeting (Miami) 
Thu, Jan 12, 2017 8:00 AM - 6:00 PM EST 

Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone. 
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/271658333 

Join the conference call: 
1-877-985-3644 passcode 5846644# 

First GoToMeeting? Try a test session: http://help.citrix.com/getready

Gopal (sundararaman.g.gopalakrishnan@noaa.gov) HFIP Co-Development Manager
Fred Toepfer (frederick.toepher@noaa.gov) HFIP Program Manager
Frank Marks (frank.marks@noaa.gov) HFIP Science Manager
Sheema Lett (nysheema.lett@noaa.gov) HFIP Office Logistics Coordinator
Liz Hoswell (Liz@ucar.edu) HFIP Meeting Coordinator
Paul Kucera (pkucera@ucar.edu) HFIP Website Coordinator