HFIP Annual Review Meeting | Nov 2017

November 8-9, 2017 | Miami, FL

Overall Objectives

In 2017, the signed Weather Act requires the development of a new HFIP project plan due in April 2018. The Weather Act states three main goals: (1) improving the prediction of RI and track of hurricanes; (2) improving the forecast and communication of storm surges from hurricanes; and (3) incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products. The objective of this meeting will be to discuss the proposed revisions of the current HFIP goals and review the initial draft of the plan which will be briefed at this annual meeting. The HFIP Plan will represent an integrated plan across NOAA and involvement from the community outside NOAA which will lead to achieving the overall goals.

Over the years, the HFIP program has been guided with the advice of Strategic Planning teams and Tiger teams. The results, accomplishments, and lessons learned of the HFIP teams have allowed for development of a multi-year strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance. The Tiger teams primarily are responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capability for the hurricane forecast guidance system. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and discuss the NOAA strategy related to the Next Generation Global Prediction System developments and the strategy to address the hurricane problem.

The meeting is planned for this location: DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Miami Airport & Convention Center

Agenda

The agenda consists of three parts:

• Nov 7: (CLOSED) HFIP Strategic Plan writing team (face-to-face) meeting at NHC
• Day 1:(Nov 8): Report on 2017 activities - Results, accomplishments & lessons learned

• Day 2 (Nov 9 - morning): Goals and priorities for 2018+; long-term planning
• Day 2 (Nov 9 - afternoon): Storm surge session - including coordination of Storm Surge Plan

Download final agenda.

Presentations

Day One | 2017 November 8

Report on 2017 activities - Results, accomplishments & lessons learned

MORNING

• Results from 2017 – (Chair: DeMaria)
• Operational Modeling Center Reports (Stream 1) – (Chair: Gopal)
  • FY17 NHC Verification (Cangialosi)
  • NHC's forecast challenges in 2017 – Harvey/Irma/Maria (Brennan/Blake)
  • NHC’s view on developmental priorities (Brennan/Blake)
  • 2017 Year in Review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Developmental Priorities (Strahl)
  • HWRF FY17 Performance (Bin Lui)
  • EMC Hurricane model upgrades and priorities for 2018 (Mehra)
  • COAMPS-TC FY17 Performance and FY18-FY19 Plans (Doyle)
  • 2017 Real-time COAMPS-TC EPS (Moskaitis)
• Open Discussion on Best Practices and lessons learned for 2017
• Results from Jet: Real-time Reservations (Stream 2)
  • Performance of Ensembles and Future Plans (W. Wang, Komaromi)
  • Basin-scale HWRF realtime results (Alaka)
  • V3 realtime results (Bender)

AFTERNOON

• HFIP Strategic and Tiger Team Reports - (Chair: Mehra)
• Plans for Hurricanes in FV3 (Tallapragada)
• Model Developments and Priorities (X. Zhang)
• HWRF Data Assimilation (Sippel)
• Data Assimilation/Ensemble Development (X.Wang)
• Socioeconomic Team (Sprague)
• Post Processing/Verification - incl. HCCA results (Zelinsky, DeMaria, Penny)
• ATCF and AWIPS-2 developments (DeMaria, Sampson)
• Tiger Teams – (Chair: Gopal)
  • DTC core activities (Newman, Nance)
  • Ensemble Products Tiger Team (DeMaria)
  • Hi-Res Physics Tiger Team (L. Zhu)
  • Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (Kim, Halliwell)
• Summary and Wrap up for Day 1

Day Two | 2017 November 9

MORNING: Goals and priorities for 2018+; long-term planning

• Next Phase of HFIP – What Did HFIP Do Well? What’s Next? -(Toepfer)
• Outbrief from Writing Team Status on Plan (Section leads)
• Open Discussion on Priorities (Chair: Marks)
• Rapid Intensification – (Kaplan, DeMaria)
• Hurricane Impacts – (Sprague)
• Performance Measures – (Brennan, DeMaria)
• Research and development HPC - (Toepfer)
• High resolution nests into the global system – (Tallapragada)
• Ensembles for impacts from rain, gusts, surge, and severe wx (DeMaria)
• Focus on weak systems and invests (Marchok)
• Data Assimilation/Initialization (current initialization approach) – (Sippel)
• Observational requirements (Rogers, Brennan)

AFTERNOON Storm surge session - including coordination of Storm Surge Plan

• Storm Surge (Chair: Kurkowski)
• Current State of Operations (Fritz)
• Status of Tropical Program (Schauer)
• NOAA storm surge modeling gaps and priorities (Paulik)
• Short-term plan to advance storm surge modeling (Kurkowski)
• Long-term vision for NOAA storm surge to meet operational needs and requirements of the Weather Act (Kurkowski)
• Role of storm surge in COASTAL Act (Vinogradov)

 

Gopal (sundararaman.g.gopalakrishnan@noaa.gov) HFIP Co-Development Manager
Fred Toepfer (frederick.toepfer@noaa.gov) HFIP Program Manager
Frank Marks (frank.marks@noaa.gov) HFIP Science Manager
Sheema Lett (nysheema.lett@noaa.gov) HFIP Office Logistics Coordinator
Liz Hoswell (liz@ucar.edu) HFIP Meeting Coordinator
Paul Kucera (pkucera@ucar.edu) HFIP Website Coordinator